Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f6…345a crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$9
other 20% −$3
sports 11% +$9
world 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -50.6% -55.3% 19% 19% -27.8%
≤30d 27 -50.6% -55.3% 19% 19% -27.8%
≤90d 27 -50.6% -55.3% 19% 19% -27.8%
all 27 -50.6% -55.3% 19% 19% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 19% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 15% -34.7%
15% -63.5% 15% -41.0%
20% -67.1% 11% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -42%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$8 +199%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.39 · official $10.39 · 60 history records