Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f6…41b1 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$14
other 15% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 81 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage640d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $52 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Besiktas win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Will Anderson win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Germany confidence vote in 2024? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the US gain less than 100,000 jobs in November? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 39d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 40d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 46d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 47d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 47d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $52 53d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $52 53d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 70d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $53 78d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $53 78d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $53 79d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $53 80d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 100d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 101d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 107d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 108d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records