Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f5…dd65 sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$5
sports 22% −$5
politics 16% −$2
economics 11% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
world 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 174 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage171d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 21 $88 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $134 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $204 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $41 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $41 5h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 14d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $38 14d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $38 27d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $38 27d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 38d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 38d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $46 124d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $46 124d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $46 124d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 124d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $18 124d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 124d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 124d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $26 124d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $26 124d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $2 124d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $21 124d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $21 124d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $21 124d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 124d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $0 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $24 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $24 124d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $20 124d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 94¢ $42 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 94¢ $43 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 668 history records