Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f4…0c4c other 6 markets active 17d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-20%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$2
sports 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -45.4% -50.6% 0% 0% -35.5%
≤90d 6 -45.4% -50.6% 0% 0% -35.5%
all 6 -45.4% -50.6% 0% 0% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 0% -35.5%
10% -55.3% 0% -41.7%
15% -59.6% 0% -47.3%
20% -63.6% 0% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 16d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 19¢ $1 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 20¢ $1 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 18d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 18d
Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records