Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A2 0xa2f1…2d22 crypto 101 markets active 12h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$591,405 (+62%) realized +$506,334 · open +$85,071
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +825% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +584% what you keep after slip
Net edge+584%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%313W / 225L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,436per market
Trades / day58.3pace
Fees−$969est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$158,815now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$23,592
other 19% +$92,138
sports 5% +$75,715
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+737.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 461 +948.3% +848.5% 58% 55% -69.7%
≤30d 487 +905.4% +809.6% 58% 52% -43.8%
≤90d 538 +825.2% +737.1% 58% 49% -18.9%
all 538 +825.2% +737.1% 58% 49% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +737.1% 49% -18.9%
10% +657.0% 48% -26.6%
15% ← realistic here +583.8% 48% -33.7%
20% +516.8% 47% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +825% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late +1690% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,066 vs −$1,209 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$158,815
Realized+$506,334
Unrealized+$85,071
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses313 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$969
Open positions23
Markets (closed)538 / 101
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$9,436
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2,167 $20,995 +$18,828 (+869%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2,167 $20,865 +$18,698 (+863%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $19,350 $19,319 −$31 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2,167 $14,105 +$11,938 (+551%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2,167 $12,545 +$10,378 (+479%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2,167 $10,465 +$8,298 (+383%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $8,882 $9,263 +$381 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2,167 $8,775 +$6,608 (+305%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2,167 $7,995 +$5,828 (+269%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 96¢ 88¢ $8,183 $7,456 −$727 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 78¢ 95¢ $5,061 $6,145 +$1,084 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2,167 $5,785 +$3,618 (+167%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 73¢ 85¢ $640 $747 +$107 (+17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 81¢ 90¢ $646 $714 +$68 (+11%)
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $190 $195 +$5 (+3%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $66 $57 −$9 (-14%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $49 −$7 (-12%)
Will Shea Langeliers have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season? No 95¢ 97¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Will Oneil Cruz lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesús Luzardo strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 90¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 63¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+257%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 3? Jun 15 $0 −$18 -6500%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 before July 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Jun 15 $2 +$1,158 +55966%
Will Ethereum dip to $4100 August 11–17? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 22-28? Jun 15 $2 −$33 -1768%
Will XRP reach $3.4 in July? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in July? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +477%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 10? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +117%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 +$1,641 +694939%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? Jun 15 $1 +$12 +878%
Will Bitcoin reach $119K September 8–14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +303%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$529 +51113%
Will another player lead the NBA in Assists? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jun 15 $0 +$9,169 +10562970%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $1 +$1,058 +100097%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? Jun 15 $1 +$410 +62829%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jun 15 $0 +$1,933 +467180%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on Apr 25? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $1 −$201 -21761%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jun 15 $0 +$87 +47557%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$129 +12556%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$201 +24588%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $0 +$85 +60586%
Will the San Diego Padres win the NL West Division? Jun 15 $1 +$69 +10027%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $0 +$1,285 +399526%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October? Jun 15 $0 +$265 +57383%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$960 +180467%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Jun 15 $1 +$100 +10157%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 in November? Jun 15 $1 +$49 +5870%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2,725 +320620%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 −$344 -88580%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$73 +7610%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$570 +61948%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$92 +9677%
Ethereum all time high in Q1 2024? Jun 15 $1 +$106 +12182%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$805 +87110%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$131 +14648%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Jun 15 $1 +$426 +45488%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? Jun 15 $1 +$2,286 +386748%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jun 15 $1 −$3 -491%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 15 $1 +$592 +66161%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 2? Jun 15 $0 +$19 +15055%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1382%
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jun 15 $0 +$2,452 +6626043%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2,189 +285749%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$80 +8867%
League of Legends: Weibo Gaming vs. JD Gaming Jun 15 $1 +$129 +14736%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $3,286 12h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $2,427 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $3,880 13h
Will Stripe’s market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $1,656 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $462 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $3,836 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 87¢ $3,910 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 88¢ $5 34h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $107 35h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $97 35h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $68 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1,380 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,476 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,468 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $2 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,465 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,455 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $9 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 67¢ $3 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 68¢ $398 37h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 68¢ $3 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $3,960 39h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 68¢ $58 39h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 64¢ $503 44h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 66¢ $3 44h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 64¢ $3 46h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 64¢ $38 46h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 63¢ $60 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $640 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 62¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158,815.26 · official $158,680.95 (match) · 3500 history records