Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2ef…4535 other 545 markets active 1h ago coverage 761d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,121 (+9%) realized +$933 · open +$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%333W / 193L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$29
14 days+$160
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$788
politics 23% −$28
other 20% +$292
tech 4% +$37
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% +$39
sports 1% −$29
finance 0% −$10
weather 0% −$6
culture 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 36% -5.3%
≤30d 59 +30.7% +18.3% 75% 36% +7.8%
≤90d 227 +9.9% -0.6% 54% 34% -0.4%
all 526 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 46% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 46% -2.5%
10% -13.4% 30% -11.9%
15% -21.7% 20% -20.4%
20% -29.4% 14% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

761d coverage
Net worth$1,217
Realized+$933
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses333 / 193
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions19
Markets (closed)526 / 545
History coverage761d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $268 $281 +$13 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 86¢ $161 $205 +$45 (+28%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 61¢ $130 $143 +$13 (+10%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 45¢ 53¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No 27¢ 38¢ $64 $88 +$24 (+37%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 50¢ $77 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 76¢ $48 $60 +$12 (+26%)
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 63¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 54¢ 76¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+42%)
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 47¢ 86¢ $28 $52 +$23 (+83%)
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 57¢ 71¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+24%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 6¢ 17¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+183%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 57¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 17¢ 42¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+150%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ 3¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-73%)
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 24¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+62%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $118 −$3 -2%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Jun 27 $56 +$9 +16%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 26 $111 +$15 +14%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $107 +$4 +3%
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Jun 25 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $54 +$5 +9%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 +$6 +16%
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $36 −$2 -7%
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +9%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 20 $105 +$20 +19%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -44%
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $75 +$8 +10%
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +745%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 17 $58 −$2 -3%
ByteDance IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Ventu Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 16 $102 +$10 +10%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $57 +$71 +124%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$3 +7%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 13 $44 +$2 +4%
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? Jun 13 $65 +$3 +4%
McDonald's CEO out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 12 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Jun 12 $49 +$10 +20%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $76 +$6 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 10 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $154 +$180 +117%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $6 +$5 +91%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? Jun 08 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $81 +$47 +59%
Pro Football: A.J. Brown to join Patriots by regular season start? Jun 07 $0 +$1 +316%
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 of the Jun 07 $5 +$4 +78%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? Jun 05 $37 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $70 +$66 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $116 1h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 72¢ $37 5h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 72¢ $9 8h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 74¢ $9 8h
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 46¢ $35 8h
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 47¢ $11 8h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $11 24h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 26h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $4 26h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $9 26h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $9 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $3 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $10 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $35 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 27h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $44 27h
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $54 30h
Will Linera launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $49 36h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 58¢ $12 36h
Will OnRe launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 57¢ $59 36h
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 21¢ $4 47h
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 17¢ $10 47h
Will KAST launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 15¢ $6 47h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $126 2d
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $20 2d
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 55¢ $16 2d
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 45¢ $9 2d
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 54¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $110 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,217.44 · official $1,217.48 (match) · 1610 history records