Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2ed…9d98
weather · 564 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,943 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$512 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized+$512
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses326 / 222
Open positions16
Markets (closed)548 / 564
History coverage22d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day151.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 548 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days+$254
14 days+$285
30 days+$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? No 83¢ 91¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 85¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 88¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 65¢ 54¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 90¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$7 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$16 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 −$19 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 −$16 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 6m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $13 49m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $20 55m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 548 +4.4% -5.5% 59% 47% -4.8%
≤90d 548 +4.4% -5.5% 59% 47% -4.8%
all 548 +4.4% -5.5% 59% 47% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 47% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 27% -13.9%
15% -22.8% 17% -22.2%
20% -30.4% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.18 · official $105.16 (match) · 3500 history records