Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2ea…8ed1 weather 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+0%) realized +$276 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%383W / 15L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day62.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$54
14 days+$88
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$260
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 4% -8.6%
≤30d 193 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 2% -10.6%
≤90d 398 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 2% -9.9%
all 398 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 2% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$73 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses383 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)398 / 407
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$178
Trades / day62.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $538 +$2 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $367 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $615 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $39 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $333 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $316 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $464 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $53 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $296 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $274 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $106 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $469 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $351 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +406%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $62 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $179 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $358 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $141 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $142 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $123 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $448 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $338 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $377 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $73 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $274 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $85 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $129 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $102 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $143 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $35 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.98 · official $547.98 (match) · 3500 history records