Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa2e8…0153 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$585 (-16%) realized −$585 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 54% -19.7%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 54% -19.7%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 54% -19.7%
all 13 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 54% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 54% -19.7%
10% -19.2% 38% -27.4%
15% -27.0% 38% -34.4%
20% -34.2% 23% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$212 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $314 +$16 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $149 −$33 -22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $222 +$128 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $171 +$101 +59%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $404 −$400 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $434 +$197 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $320 −$244 -76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $240 +$95 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 +$37 +19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs Jun 17 $108 +$153 +142%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $330 48m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $314 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $116 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $149 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 66¢ $202 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 63¢ $222 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $272 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $171 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Be BUY $36 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will B BUY 27¢ $57 44h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 18¢ $227 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $404 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $631 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $434 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $306 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: B BUY 25¢ $104 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $77 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $320 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $240 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $6 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 33¢ $32 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Por BUY 41¢ $58 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs BUY 41¢ $108 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 34¢ $89 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $86 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $200.00 · 32 history records