Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e6…1ff1 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$231 (-98%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-77.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 14% -98.1%
≤30d 7 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 14% -98.1%
≤90d 7 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 14% -98.1%
all 7 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 14% -98.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.2% 14% -98.1%
10% -79.4% 0% -98.3%
15% -81.4% 0% -98.4%
20% -83.2% 0% -98.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$39 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records