Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e6…ca32 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-24%) realized −$345 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$365
other 16% +$32
crypto 5% −$39
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.5% +17.1% 80% 80% +10.8%
≤30d 10 +29.5% +17.1% 80% 80% +10.8%
≤90d 83 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 37% -35.7%
all 83 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 37% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -35.7%
10% -30.1% 35% -41.8%
15% -36.9% 25% -47.5%
20% -43.1% 24% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage80d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 65¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 23¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 +$34 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$37 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$62 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Apr 12 $300 −$296 -99%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5) Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 +$5 +86%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Kocaelispor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $6 +$4 +73%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $5 +$5 +105%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $5 +$5 +97%
Antalyaspor vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $6 +$4 +67%
Getafe CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $4 +$7 +188%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Samsunspor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Samsunspor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $3 +$8 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 01 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $25 +$32 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 69¢ $35 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $36 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $36 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $70 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $61 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) BUY Galatasaray SK 56¢ $300 66d
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5) BUY Galatasaray SK 32¢ $100 66d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 70d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 27¢ $6 71d
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 71d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 71d
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 72d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? BUY No 62¢ $6 72d
Kocaelispor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 72d
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-04-06? BUY No 57¢ $6 72d
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 73d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 73d
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.70 · official $124.70 (match) · 179 history records