Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa2e6…23dc crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$175 (+8%) realized +$174 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$166
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
crypto 41% +$1
sports 15% +$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 5 +22.5% +10.8% 40% 20% -0.2%
≤90d 5 +22.5% +10.8% 40% 20% -0.2%
all 5 +22.5% +10.8% 40% 20% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 20% -0.2%
10% +0.2% 20% -9.7%
15% -9.5% 20% -18.5%
20% -18.4% 20% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$55 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $493 $494 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $487 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $168 −$165 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $160 +$340 +212%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $395 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.99 · official $493.99 (match) · 20 history records