trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $11 | $11 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 56¢ | 44¢ | $8 | $7 | −$2 (-21%) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Up | 52¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? | Up | 51¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | 90k | 50¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | May 14 | $26 | −$25 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | May 14 | $362 | −$32 | -9% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? | Mar 29 | $12 | +$14 | +117% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Feb 28 | $21 | +$24 | +113% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? | Feb 24 | $25 | +$24 | +96% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Feb 15 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? | Feb 08 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Feb 08 | $504 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | Feb 08 | $17 | +$10 | +56% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Feb 01 | $502 | −$1 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Jan 24 | $503 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 21 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 21 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 05 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 05 | $1,037 | −$1 | -0% |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | Dec 25 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? | Dec 03 | $497 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Dec 03 | $497 | −$1 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 03 | $3 | −$2 | -84% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 10 | $12 | −$11 | -91% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Nov 09 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Nov 09 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 09 | $1,047 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Keir Starmer win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Nov 09 | $1,042 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 09 | $1,045 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 09 | $9 | +$1 | +7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 33% | 33% | -19.1% |
| all | 26 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 19% | 15% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.3% | 15% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -30.6% | 15% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -37.3% | 15% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -43.5% | 15% | -34.0% |