Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A2 0xa2e4…5c64 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$389per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+2.0%	-7.7%	100%	0%	-7.7%
≤90d	2	+2.0%	-7.7%	100%	0%	-7.7%
all	2	+2.0%	-7.7%	100%	0%	-7.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.7%	0%	-7.7%
10%	-16.6%	0%	-16.5%
15%	-24.6%	0%	-24.6%
20%	-32.0%	0%	-32.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$299

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage12d

Avg bet$389

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	93¢	92¢	$300	$299	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Curaçao leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$435	+$13	+3%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	Jun 14	$431	+$5	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$300	1h
Curaçao leading at halftime?	BUY No	97¢	$435	11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	SELL No	93¢	$435	11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$431	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.77 · official $298.77 (match) · 5 history records