Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e4…bf9d sports 253 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$51,306 (+6%) realized +$51,805 · open −$499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%136W / 194L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,216per market
Trades / day207.3pace
Fees−$12,226est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$15,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$40,812
other 6% −$27,338
crypto 0% −$2,844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -42.6% -48.0% 30% 28% -36.8%
≤30d 330 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 40% -23.1%
≤90d 330 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 40% -23.1%
all 330 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 40% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 40% -23.1%
10% -34.1% 40% -30.4%
15% ← realistic here -40.4% 39% -37.2%
20% -46.3% 36% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,200) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,555 vs −$2,577 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$15,975
Realized+$51,805
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses136 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$12,226
Open positions3
Markets (closed)330 / 253
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$3,216
Trades / day207.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $8,050 $9,225 +$1,175 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $8,200 $6,625 −$1,575 (-19%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $224 $125 −$99 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $2,532 −$2,532 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 17 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,150 −$3,150 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs BNK FearX Youth (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2,429 −$2,429 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 17 $2,329 −$2,329 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,730 −$1,730 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) Jun 17 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $2,400 −$2,880 -120%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $5,425 −$5,425 -100%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul Jun 17 $3,992 −$3,992 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $676 −$676 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $633 −$633 -100%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,941 −$1,941 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 17 $850 −$850 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,880 −$3,880 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm Jun 17 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,860 −$3,860 -100%
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $1,268 −$1,268 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 17 $2,168 −$2,168 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 17 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 17 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 17 $3,150 −$3,150 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,750 −$3,140 -114%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 17 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 17 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 17 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $5,122 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 48¢ $469 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 48¢ $11 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $111 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $27 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $3 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $6 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $552 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $10 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $5 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 51¢ $815 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $28 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $52 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $6 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $52 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $156 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $156 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $22 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $78 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 52¢ $37 27h
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,734 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $2,063 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $1,313 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $399 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $56 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $39 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,451 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,975.38 · official $15,975.53 (match) · 3500 history records