Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e3…fbb2 crypto 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,964 (-39%) realized −$52,773 · open +$2,809
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 121L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,973per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$1,165est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$19,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$31,984
crypto 36% −$26,265
other 8% +$13,279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -51.9% -56.5% 6% 6% -88.9%
≤30d 126 -45.8% -50.9% 10% 10% -77.8%
≤90d 139 -44.1% -49.4% 13% 13% -74.8%
all 139 -44.1% -49.4% 13% 13% -74.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.4% 13% -74.8%
10% -54.3% 12% -77.2%
15% ← realistic here -58.7% 12% -79.4%
20% -62.7% 12% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$2,214) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
75.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,169 vs −$1,667 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$19,468
Realized−$52,773
Unrealized+$2,809
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$1,165
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 43
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2,973
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 44¢ 70¢ $7,920 $12,690 +$4,770 (+60%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $4,233 $4,193 −$40 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $4,506 $2,585 −$1,921 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $422 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2,168 −$2,168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2,209 −$2,209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $4,315 −$4,315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,972 −$1,972 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $2,912 −$2,912 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $3,717 −$3,717 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $744 −$744 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $735 −$735 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $995 −$995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jun 22 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $2,645 −$2,645 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $4,328 −$4,328 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $2,677 −$2,677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $739 −$739 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $2,121 −$2,121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $2,166 −$2,166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $190 −$190 -100%
Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 215.5 Jun 22 $2,516 −$2,516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $292 −$292 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $1,521 −$1,521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 22 $0 +$2,379 +707958%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $1,253 −$1,253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,989 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $4,586 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,886 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $124 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4,293 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $106 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $4,765 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,964 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $69 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $319 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $643 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11,859 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $27 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $11 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,467.95 · official $19,467.96 (match) · 3500 history records