Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2e2…da11
other · 124 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$40 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage108d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Kings vs. Hornets Kings 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Heat vs. Rockets Heat 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Thunder Celtics 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Knicks Knicks 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $326 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 03 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,917 −$2 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 02 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $566 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $358 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $357 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $316 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $372 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $301 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $320 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $374 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $351 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $377 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $395 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $391 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $302 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$21
politics 33% −$15
sports 9% +$74
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $54 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 4d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $331 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $331 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $331 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 25d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $376 29d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $376 38d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $377 38d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $377 38d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $357 39d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $357 39d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 39d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $260 39d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $250 39d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $250 40d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $326 40d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $326 40d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 40d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 40d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $314 41d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $314 41d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $306 41d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $306 41d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $302 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 +0.1% -9.5% 10% 7% -9.5%
all 123 -2.0% -11.4% 13% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 7% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 6% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.97 · official $53.97 (match) · 348 history records