Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e0…fd91 other 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 560d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,601 (+3%) realized +$22,397 · open +$1,204
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%116W / 90L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3,226per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63,786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,645
7 days+$3,423
14 days+$3,378
30 days+$4,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$18,377
politics 31% +$19,217
world 10% −$1,387
tech 8% −$3,234
crypto 6% +$1,902
sports 1% −$92
economics 1% +$18
culture 0% −$2,942
weather 0% −$757
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +77.4% +60.5% 85% 31% -3.7%
≤30d 28 +41.3% +27.9% 71% 29% -5.6%
≤90d 28 +41.3% +27.9% 71% 29% -5.6%
all 206 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 31% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 31% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 19% -13.5%
15% -27.3% 15% -21.8%
20% -34.4% 11% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$537 vs −$361 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$63,786
Realized+$22,397
Unrealized+$1,204
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses116 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)206 / 210
History coverage560d ⚠
Avg bet$3,226
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $58,468 $59,375 +$907 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 80¢ 89¢ $2,969 $3,309 +$340 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 78¢ $1,130 $1,097 −$34 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 16¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $21,738 +$1,429 +7%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $3,144 +$216 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $811 +$89 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $553 +$127 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $8,469 −$668 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,640 +$127 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $3,196 +$278 +9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $342 −$57 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3,487 +$1,453 +42%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7,143 +$38 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,855 +$307 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,730 +$53 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $561 +$30 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,281 +$2 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $79 −$13 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $470 −$8 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,029 +$38 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 04 $3,170 −$64 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 03 $160 +$137 +86%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $6,452 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $707 +$369 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $27,829 +$153 +0%
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential May 31 $39 +$9 +22%
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e May 31 $160 −$4 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $23 −$5 -23%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $92 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $677 +$230 +34%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $3,774 +$39 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 10 $9,296 +$338 +4%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $3,872 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 09 $600 +$400 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 09 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 09 $354 −$352 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $30,095 +$986 +3%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jan 25 $2,672 −$2,647 -99%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 18 $328 −$328 -100%
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? Jan 18 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Jul 08 $50 +$12 +24%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Jul 08 $235 −$118 -50%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Jul 08 $33 +$32 +99%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jul 08 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jul 08 $195 +$5 +2%
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? Jul 08 $246 −$204 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jul 08 $411 −$411 -100%
Will Russia capture Udachne before July? Jul 08 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 08 $853 +$77 +9%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 08 $946 +$54 +6%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 08 $1,198 +$22 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 08 $1,220 +$31 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $6 0m
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 38m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $344 45m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $32 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $72 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $7 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $73 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $357 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $29 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,819 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $29 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $97 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $150 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $33 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,146 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $164 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $153 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,785.52 · official $63,698.14 (match) · 3500 history records