Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e0…d084 sports 886 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,862 (-2%) realized −$3,862 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%478W / 408L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$4,394
crypto 41% +$264
other 3% −$549
world 0% −$67
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +16.0% +4.9% 65% 55% +0.9%
≤30d 64 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 55% -8.3%
≤90d 406 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 52% -17.7%
all 886 -6.2% -15.2% 54% 52% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 52% -12.2%
10% -23.3% 47% -20.6%
15% -30.7% 41% -28.3%
20% -37.5% 36% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$149 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,862
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses478 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)886 / 886
History coverage136d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 886 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $355 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$50 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 02 $54 −$53 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $51 +$40 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $51 −$50 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 01 $51 +$36 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $51 +$51 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $51 +$44 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $51 +$45 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $48 +$55 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $51 +$39 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $51 +$65 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $51 +$39 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $51 +$34 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $51 +$42 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $51 +$30 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $31 +$6 +20%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $51 +$53 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $51 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $303 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 18h
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $54 17d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $101 17d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $51 18d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $51 18d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $51 18d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $51 19d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 58¢ $51 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $51 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2122 history records