Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa2dd…ba29 crypto 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$68 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%279W / 4L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$77
politics 4% +$4
other 2% +$1
finance 1% −$19
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +2.1% -7.6% 99% 1% -7.7%
≤30d 283 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 1% -8.1%
≤90d 283 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 1% -8.1%
all 283 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 1% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 1% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses279 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)283 / 291
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.60 · official $155.26 (match) · 585 history records