Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa2dd…dc30 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$132 (+5%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +4.3% -5.7% 76% 76% -0.9%
≤30d 55 +4.3% -5.7% 76% 76% -0.9%
≤90d 55 +4.3% -5.7% 76% 76% -0.9%
all 55 +4.3% -5.7% 76% 76% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 76% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 58% -10.4%
15% -22.9% 27% -19.1%
20% -30.5% 13% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$39 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$48 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $81 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $78 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $72 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $77 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $85 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $79 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $87 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $70 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $66 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $74 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $57 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $66 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $68 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $83 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records