Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2dd…e1b2 sports 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,544 (-2%) realized −$11,582 · open −$962
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%820W / 21L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$20,943
other 31% −$450
tech 3% +$48
weather 2% +$16
politics 0% +$9
world 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 378 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 1% -12.4%
≤90d 841 -1.6% -11.0% 98% 0% -11.7%
all 841 -1.6% -11.0% 98% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 0% -11.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1,155 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$5,362
Realized−$11,582
Unrealized−$962
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses820 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions5
Markets (closed)841 / 847
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$756
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $3,717 $2,872 −$845 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,155 $2,025 −$130 (-6%)
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 99¢ 100¢ $233 $236 +$3 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $155 $165 +$10 (+7%)
Svrcina vs. Gomez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Ferro vs. Persson: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Ferro vs. Persson: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $188 +$2 +1%
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $526 +$1 +0%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $228 +$3 +1%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 16 $727 +$1 +0%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $244 +$2 +1%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $404 +$5 +1%
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $2,261 +$4 +0%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $289 +$6 +2%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $53 +$1 +1%
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Buse vs. Giron: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $1,336 +$11 +1%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $177 +$1 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $164 $0 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,347 +$2 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,411 +$1 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 15 $144 $0 +0%
Jones vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Maya Joint vs. Yulia Starodubtseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 15 $328 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Terence Atmane vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,092 +$8 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $339 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $233 1h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $77 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,995 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 4h
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $999 5h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 99¢ $99 12h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY France 100¢ $100 12h
Ferro vs. Persson: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 14h
Ferro vs. Persson: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $58 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 100¢ $80 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 100¢ $20 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 100¢ $28 16h
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $59 16h
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $188 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 99¢ $92 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 100¢ $307 16h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) BUY Kopriva 100¢ $99 16h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) BUY Kopriva 100¢ $19 16h
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Moutet 100¢ $40 17h
Perricard vs. Moutet: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,998 17h
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) BUY Hurkacz 100¢ $8 18h
Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $200 18h
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Moutet 100¢ $14 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,362.16 · official $5,362.16 (match) · 3500 history records