Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa2dd…8d59 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,550 (-1%) realized −$1,551 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$915per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$675
politics 37% −$53
sports 16% −$825
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 0% -10.5%
all 146 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 7% -10.6%
10% -24.1% 6% -19.1%
15% -31.4% 5% -26.9%
20% -38.2% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,143) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$926
Realized−$1,551
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage132d
Avg bet$915
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $569 $570 +$1 (+0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $356 $356 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $434 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $474 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $812 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,807 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $955 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $938 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 21 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $987 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,954 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $550 +$1 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,946 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $367 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $483 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,913 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,839 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,448 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $356 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $434 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $434 5h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $461 26h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $462 29h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $352 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $352 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $474 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $474 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $453 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $453 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $436 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $437 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $569 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $850 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $851 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $768 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $769 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $840 20d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $842 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $860 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $861 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $784 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.33 · official $926.33 (match) · 465 history records