Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa2dc…26c5 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$217 (-40%) realized −$53 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.9% -69.2% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤30d 4 -65.9% -69.2% 25% 25% -63.5%
≤90d 4 -65.9% -69.2% 25% 25% -63.5%
all 4 -65.9% -69.2% 25% 25% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.2% 25% -63.5%
10% -72.1% 25% -67.0%
15% -74.8% 25% -70.2%
20% -77.3% 0% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$83 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $165 $1 −$164 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$38 +36%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $107 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $37 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $139 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $143 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 7 history records