Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2db…a60d sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$557 (-2%) realized −$161 · open −$396
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate79%108W / 28L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$888est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$1,015
14 days−$876
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$669
other 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 3% -21.0%
≤30d 136 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 136 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 3% -10.2%
all 136 -2.5% -11.8% 79% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 3% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$56 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$598
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$396
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses108 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$888
Open positions4
Markets (closed)136 / 140
History coverage29d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 82¢ 38¢ $622 $288 −$334 (-54%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Under 44¢ 42¢ $220 $212 −$8 (-3%)
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Team Nemesis 50¢ 32¢ $152 $96 −$56 (-37%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 21¢ 100¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+376%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $230 −$4 -2%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 −$8 -8%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $225 −$4 -2%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $190 +$5 +3%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $310 +$5 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $463 +$5 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $266 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 −$4 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $116 +$1 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $220 +$5 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$19 -7%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $255 −$5 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $395 −$1 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $400 −$8 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $230 −$4 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $495 −$16 -3%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 11 $176 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $441 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $210 −$209 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $365 +$5 +1%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $195 +$5 +2%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $270 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $300 +$5 +2%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $355 −$355 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 11 $238 −$21 -9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $122 −$3 -3%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $89 +$21 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $230 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $116 +$3 +3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $57 +$1 +2%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 10 $285 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $225 +$5 +2%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $60 +$5 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $425 +$5 +1%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $155 −$155 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $335 +$9 +3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $230 +$5 +2%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $355 +$5 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 08 $333 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $285 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $345 +$6 +2%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) SELL Team Nemesis $0 18m
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) SELL Team Nemesis $2 19m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 23¢ $205 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 24¢ $21 2h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $115 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $115 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $50 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $19 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $76 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 5h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $221 5h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $23 5h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 72¢ $62 5h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $94 5h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $78 6h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $195 6h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 38¢ $190 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.37 · official $598.37 (match) · 750 history records