Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2db…21ec other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$1
other 28% −$3
politics 11% −$2
sports 11% +$9
crypto 8% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -4.2% -13.4% 33% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -9.2%
10% -21.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $81 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $10 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 09 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 20 $18 $0 +1%
Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $19 $0 -2%
Will Austria be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $22 $0 -1%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? Mar 03 $6 −$1 -23%
VCU vs. Duquesne Mar 03 $29 −$7 -26%
Brown vs. Dartmouth Mar 03 $18 +$16 +92%
Youngstown State vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 01 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $42 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $12 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $12 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $6 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.70 · official $40.70 (match) · 120 history records