Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2d4…4064 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized −$111 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤90d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -8.0%
all 10 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -8.0%
10% -22.7% 40% -16.8%
15% -30.2% 40% -24.8%
20% -37.0% 20% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 85¢ $50 $111 +$61 (+123%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 73¢ 99¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+36%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 29¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$47 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $151 +$69 +46%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 73¢ $22 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 95¢ $148 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 24h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 29h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 29h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $10 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.52 · official $340.52 (match) · 20 history records