Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2d2…36b6 world 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$136 (-2%) realized −$145 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%100W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$13
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$149
world 16% −$6
politics 5% −$31
other 5% +$36
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 39% -12.6%
≤30d 143 -4.0% -13.2% 48% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 200 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 34% -18.5%
all 230 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 31% -11.9%
10% -26.0% 22% -20.3%
15% -33.2% 18% -28.0%
20% -39.7% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses100 / 130
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions58
Markets (closed)230 / 288
History coverage538d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $33 $42 +$8 (+24%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 74¢ 76¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 84¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+34%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 75¢ 92¢ $15 $18 +$4 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 29¢ 67¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+129%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Yes 45¢ 98¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+120%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 28¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 87¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 71¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +123%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +310%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$6 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 $0 +138%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No $1 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 34m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 45m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 45m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 10h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 12h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $1 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $4 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.73 · official $315.39 (match) · 1223 history records