Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2d2…9de1 tech 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 49% −$15
other 35% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% −$3
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 32 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -11.0%
10% -22.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -29.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage231d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 23 $8 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 23 $50 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jan 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 02 $40 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 19 $4 $0 +7%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Nov 25 $1 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Nov 17 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $223 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $223 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 23d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $50 23d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 46d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $58 74d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $58 92d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $50 92d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $8 133d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $50 133d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.23 · official $243.23 (match) · 111 history records