Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2cd…2e8c crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$551 (+3%) realized +$1,605 · open −$1,054
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%53W / 31L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$84
14 days−$81
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$1,101
other 28% +$10
world 22% +$206
sports 13% +$294
tech 7% −$11
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 41% -13.9%
≤30d 63 -12.2% -20.5% 52% 41% -5.5%
≤90d 79 -10.5% -19.0% 61% 34% -4.6%
all 84 -6.9% -15.7% 63% 35% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 35% -4.5%
10% -23.8% 21% -13.7%
15% -31.2% 18% -22.0%
20% -37.9% 7% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$8,250
Realized+$1,605
Unrealized−$1,054
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses53 / 31
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions68
Markets (closed)84 / 152
History coverage116d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2,290 $2,312 +$22 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,081 $1,108 +$27 (+2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $989 $925 −$64 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 25¢ 100¢ $81 $322 +$241 (+297%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $186 $311 +$125 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $212 $295 +$83 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 39¢ 100¢ $106 $268 +$162 (+153%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $195 $198 +$3 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $142 $183 +$41 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $128 $177 +$49 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $131 $138 +$7 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $104 $138 +$34 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 66¢ 68¢ $133 $137 +$4 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 49¢ 32¢ $184 $120 −$64 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 81¢ 100¢ $94 $117 +$23 (+24%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $62 $108 +$46 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $94 $106 +$11 (+12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 85¢ $109 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 78¢ 48¢ $164 $100 −$64 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $61 $85 +$24 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $53 $78 +$25 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 86¢ 100¢ $66 $77 +$11 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $43 $67 +$24 (+56%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $35 $63 +$28 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$6 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$65 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $114 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$2 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $86 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$15 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$12 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$21 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$17 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$5 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$23 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $18 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,250.23 · official $8,256.32 (match) · 1059 history records