Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

A2 0xa2cc…fa0a sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,148 (+18%) realized +$2,085 · open +$63

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%15W / 5L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$545per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$38est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$2,714now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+5.2%	-4.8%	75%	75%	+10.8%
≤30d	20	+5.2%	-4.8%	75%	75%	+10.8%
≤90d	20	+5.2%	-4.8%	75%	75%	+10.8%
all	20	+5.2%	-4.8%	75%	75%	+10.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	75%	+10.8%
10%	-13.9%	60%	+0.2%
15%	-22.2%	25%	-9.5%
20%	-29.9%	15%	-18.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$529) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +18% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$187 vs −$142 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$2,714

Realized+$2,085

Unrealized+$63

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses15 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$38

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$545

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	84¢	84¢	$2,525	$2,513	−$12 (-0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Over	62¢	98¢	$127	$201	+$74 (+59%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	+$26	+26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$221	−$219	-99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$174	+$45	+26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$273	+$66	+24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$342	−$169	-49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$235	+$37	+16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$181	+$53	+29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$179	+$65	+36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$131	+$24	+18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$155	−$155	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$101	+$29	+29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$126	−$125	-99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$163	−$43	-26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2,219	+$680	+31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$1,708	+$493	+29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$1,114	+$582	+52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$811	+$291	+36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 12	$529	+$276	+52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$452	+$71	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$128	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	79¢	$101	4h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	BUY No	84¢	$2,537	5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	81¢	$221	7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	79¢	$174	15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	42¢	$173	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	81¢	$342	27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	80¢	$273	28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	86¢	$235	30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	77¢	$181	33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	75¢	$50	37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	72¢	$128	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$155	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5	BUY Under	84¢	$131	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	77¢	$101	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$126	2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	SELL Germany	53¢	$121	2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	70¢	$163	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$101	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	76¢	$2,219	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$2,201	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	77¢	$1,708	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	65¢	$1,114	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	73¢	$811	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	65¢	$529	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	86¢	$452	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,714.29 · official $2,638.79 · 40 history records