Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

A2 0xa2c9…0f92 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$43 (+37%) realized +$51 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip

Net edge+46%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+51.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+67.4%	+51.5%	50%	50%	+43.9%
≤30d	6	+67.4%	+51.5%	50%	50%	+43.9%
≤90d	6	+67.4%	+51.5%	50%	50%	+43.9%
all	6	+67.4%	+51.5%	50%	50%	+43.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+51.5%	50%	+43.9%
10%	+37.0%	50%	+30.1%
15%	+23.8%	50%	+17.6%
20%	+11.6%	33%	+6.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +67% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)6 / 11

History coverage2d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	61¢	80¢	$7	$9	+$2 (+32%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	16¢	$12	$9	−$3 (-25%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$8	$7	−$1 (-7%)
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals	Yes	13¢	11¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-14%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	17¢	3¢	$7	$1	−$6 (-84%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$12	+$4	+36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists	Jun 15	$5	+$23	+442%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$23	+$52	+226%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	61¢	$7	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	17¢	$7	1h
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$8	4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$12	4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	73¢	$12	17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$15	18h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	34h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	34h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	28¢	$15	34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$23	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.08 · official $32.52 · 14 history records