Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2c5…4a3f crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%35W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$8
other 5% −$11
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -12.7%
≤30d 63 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -12.7%
≤90d 63 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -12.7%
all 63 -1.4% -10.8% 56% 54% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 54% -12.7%
10% -19.4% 46% -21.1%
15% -27.2% 38% -28.7%
20% -34.3% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 25¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$10 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 32m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.14 · official $6.74 (match) · 132 history records