Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2c3…0566 sports 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,417 (+14%) realized +$3,417 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%433W / 138L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$3,983
14 days+$3,979
30 days+$3,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$3,370
crypto 10% +$57
other 1% −$46
finance 0% −$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -0.2% -9.7% 70% 55% +30.3%
≤30d 263 -1.1% -10.5% 73% 42% +21.8%
≤90d 526 -3.3% -12.5% 78% 26% +3.1%
all 571 -4.0% -13.2% 76% 27% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 27% +2.8%
10% -21.5% 17% -7.0%
15% -29.1% 12% -16.0%
20% -36.0% 8% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,417
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses433 / 138
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage105d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $37 −$4 -10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $22 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$15 +97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $6 +$5 +76%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $12 +$3 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $17 +$12 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7 +$5 +72%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$13 +59%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $430 +$5 +1%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $410 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $1,145 +$11 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $7 +$7 +104%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 −$9 -59%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +145%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $53 +$5 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $55 +$9 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$5 +11%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $24 +$14 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $49 +$5 +11%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $33 +$8 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$7 +26%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $455 −$10 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $77 −$40 -52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $27 +$3 +11%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $25 +$5 +22%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $35 +$5 +15%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 52¢ $34 2m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $33 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 57¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $15 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $22 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $11 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 70¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 100¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 51¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 65¢ $10 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 64¢ $7 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $15 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 77¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $17 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1428 history records