Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2c2…e482 sports 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 9 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 9 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
all 9 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 33% -16.8%
10% -11.5% 33% -24.7%
15% -20.1% 33% -32.0%
20% -27.9% 33% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$16 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 −$6 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$21 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $4 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $6 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $12 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $19 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records