Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A2 0xa2c2…37f1 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$68 (+17%) realized −$191 · open +$259

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-5.9%	-14.9%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤30d	3	-5.9%	-14.9%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤90d	3	-5.9%	-14.9%	67%	67%	+23.6%
all	3	-5.9%	-14.9%	67%	67%	+23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.9%	67%	+23.6%
10%	-23.0%	67%	+11.7%
15%	-30.4%	67%	+0.9%
20%	-37.3%	0%	-9.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$7 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.97 per $1 lost it wins $8.97

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$259

Realized−$191

Unrealized+$259

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage8d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	81¢	$0	$180	+$180 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	0¢	52¢	$0	$79	+$79 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$140	+$61	+43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$84	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$156	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$201	36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$140	46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$7	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.99 · official $259.01 (match) · 7 history records