Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa2c1…ec58 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$8
economics 1% $0
other 1% −$12
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage245d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 16¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $190 −$1 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 20m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 8h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 10h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 11h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 13h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 16h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 18h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 23h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 25h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 29h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 30h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 33h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 35h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 37h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 39h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 39h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.04 · official $183.04 (match) · 70 history records