Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2c0…fad2 sports 488 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$702 (+10%) realized +$702 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%229W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$690
14 days−$706
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$382
politics 22% $0
other 7% +$58
crypto 3% −$27
culture 0% $0
world 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 37% -32.2%
≤30d 424 +8.2% -2.1% 47% 42% -14.8%
≤90d 487 +14.9% +3.9% 47% 42% -14.2%
all 487 +14.9% +3.9% 47% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 42% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 38% -22.4%
15% -15.1% 34% -29.9%
20% -23.4% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$702
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses229 / 258
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions1
Markets (closed)487 / 488
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $57 +$52 +91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $3 +$7 +241%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $34 +$8 +25%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $108 +$163 +151%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $107 −$41 -39%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $50 +$6 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$65 +86%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor Jun 11 $85 −$85 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $19 +$15 +77%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $47 +$70 +147%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $91 −$35 -38%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $129 −$129 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $37 +$131 +350%
Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs Majchrzak Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $36 +$6 +15%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 10 $16 +$2 +13%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $15 +$14 +91%
ITF Martos: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Carles Hernandez Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $88 +$56 +64%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $52 +$46 +88%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $72 +$87 +122%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $34 +$16 +48%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $44 +$166 +375%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $18 +$9 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 4¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 4¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 4¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 4¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 8¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 10¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 10¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 10¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 12¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 15¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 15¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 21¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 21¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 22¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 25¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 10¢ $27 2d
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 3¢ $55 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 73¢ $108 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $19 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $19 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $19 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) SELL Legacy 99¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 12¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 17¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 17¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 3500 history records