Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2bf…95d3 crypto 1513 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+2%) realized +$188 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%831W / 681L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$342
7 days+$469
14 days+$469
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$172
other 28% +$422
tech 3% −$60
weather 2% −$63
finance 1% +$3
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.2% +4.2% 73% 73% +29.9%
≤30d 119 -29.9% -36.6% 53% 29% +7.3%
≤90d 1512 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 51% -7.9%
all 1512 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 51% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 51% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 48% -16.7%
15% -29.9% 46% -24.7%
20% -36.8% 38% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$188
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses831 / 681
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1512 / 1513
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $605 $601 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $399 +$208 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $72 +$76 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $135 +$99 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May 27? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 28? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 26? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 28? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 27? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +46%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $2 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $607 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $607 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $399 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $155 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $135 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 7¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 7¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 7¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 6¢ $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 31? BUY No 6¢ $0 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30? BUY No 4¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? BUY No 85¢ $4 23d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? BUY No 82¢ $0 23d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 28? BUY No 10¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.99 · official $600.99 (match) · 3500 history records