Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2b9…e2de sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-11%) realized −$105 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$214
14 days−$106
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$90
crypto 9% +$35
other 4% −$5
world 4% −$8
politics 1% $0
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -30.6% -37.2% 32% 32% -69.2%
≤30d 47 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 36% -22.5%
≤90d 47 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 36% -22.5%
all 47 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 36% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 36% -22.5%
10% -17.9% 36% -29.9%
15% -25.9% 34% -36.7%
20% -33.1% 32% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)47 / 62
History coverage19d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ 98¢ $48 $83 +$35 (+73%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 76¢ 100¢ $59 $78 +$19 (+32%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Under 64¢ 96¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ 96¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Under 63¢ 74¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Cincinnati Reds 49¢ 31¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ 10¢ $33 $6 −$27 (-82%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 18¢ 2¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-92%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Over 63¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 43¢ 6¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unicorns San Francisco Unicorns 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 19 $41 −$39 -94%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 -52%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $5 −$4 -66%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -33%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $10 +$60 +589%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 +$10 +103%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 07 $30 −$8 -28%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 +$15 +344%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $28 −$7 -26%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $18 +$12 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $41 +$26 +64%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $71 +$19 +27%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $26 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $10 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 18¢ $11 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $10 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 17¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 76¢ $60 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $34 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $49 1h
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY San Francisco Unicorns 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.90 · official $224.90 (match) · 142 history records