Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2b7…7619 other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$74 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%60W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$207
14 days+$181
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$10
other 34% +$36
crypto 28% −$121
world 0% +$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 62% +12.7%
≤30d 151 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 37% -9.1%
≤90d 151 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 37% -9.1%
all 151 -22.3% -29.7% 40% 37% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 37% -9.1%
10% -36.4% 30% -17.8%
15% -42.6% 24% -25.8%
20% -48.2% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses60 / 91
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)151 / 156
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 64¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 24¢ $36 $15 −$21 (-57%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 59¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 61¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$195 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$44 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $53 +$23 +42%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $88 +$15 +17%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $57 +$32 +56%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $96 +$11 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$16 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $22 +$9 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $22 −$15 -67%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $36 +$8 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$67 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $28 +$18 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $24 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +99%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Luan: Ilya Maltsev vs Tianhui Zhang Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Italy leading at halftime? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Wales 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 02 $2 +$9 +595%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $8 +$19 +237%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 +$16 +172%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Madagascar? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Madagascar? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Madagascar? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $7 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $7 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$6 +131%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4 $0 -4%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 02 $6 −$5 -82%
Birmingham: Mark Lajal vs Leandro Riedi Jun 02 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $27 3h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 61¢ $20 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $57 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $76 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $53 20h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 99¢ $104 28h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 84¢ $88 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL K27 100¢ $88 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY K27 63¢ $57 30h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Clutchain 79¢ $57 30h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 69¢ $50 30h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL Clutchain 73¢ $50 30h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 65¢ $45 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 23¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $22 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $30 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 72¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 83¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.48 · official $68.48 (match) · 295 history records