Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2b6…e937 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 22% −$24
politics 7% −$8
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$9
world 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage134d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $599 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $366 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $898 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $521 −$2 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $422 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $421 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $391 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $599 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $899 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $699 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $450 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $473 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 12h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 14h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 15h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 31h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 38h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 42h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 43h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 44h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 46h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.41 · official $55.41 (match) · 1382 history records