Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A2 0xa2af…e3bc sports 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,901 (+11%) realized +$2,898 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%127W / 91L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$315est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$844
14 days+$882
30 days+$2,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2,356
other 6% +$195
crypto 0% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +60.9% +45.6% 77% 77% +44.8%
≤30d 101 +19.5% +8.2% 60% 60% +9.6%
≤90d 199 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 59% +2.8%
all 218 +12.2% +1.5% 58% 58% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 58% +0.4%
10% -8.2% 58% -9.2%
15% -17.1% 58% -18.0%
20% -25.2% 53% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$109 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$2,898
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses127 / 91
Est. fees paid−$315
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage202d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $424 $427 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 +$124 +122%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $202 +$96 +48%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $99 +$151 +152%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $98 −$96 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $100 +$110 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 +$120 +118%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $103 +$127 +123%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $95 +$215 +226%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $103 +$97 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $99 −$98 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$99 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$138 +134%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $204 +$156 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 +$96 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $95 −$94 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $107 +$93 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $171 +$179 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $212 +$168 +80%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $223 +$184 +82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $104 −$103 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $99 +$81 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$60 +60%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$104 +103%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 −$34 -17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 13 $103 +$97 +95%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $109 +$91 +83%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $103 +$137 +134%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $104 +$76 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 +$145 +145%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 11 $99 −$98 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $95 −$93 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $102 +$78 +76%
Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 09 $129 +$91 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 95¢ $226 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $298 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 67¢ $202 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $99 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $98 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $100 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $230 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $95 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $226 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $103 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $0 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $94 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 42¢ $100 7d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 41¢ $3 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.72 · official $428.40 (match) · 546 history records