Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a8…22fb crypto 1729 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$158 (+4%) realized +$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%857W / 720L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day139.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$58
14 days+$177
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 757 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 48% -12.0%
≤30d 1577 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 51% -2.8%
≤90d 1577 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 51% -2.8%
all 1577 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 51% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 51% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 50% -12.1%
15% -18.4% 48% -20.6%
20% -26.4% 47% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses857 / 720
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1577 / 1729
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day139.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1577 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records