Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a8…d7ac other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-8%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$147
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +55.4% +40.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
≤30d 32 +55.4% +40.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
≤90d 32 +55.4% +40.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
all 32 +55.4% +40.6% 31% 31% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.6% 31% -17.7%
10% +27.1% 28% -25.6%
15% +14.8% 28% -32.8%
20% +3.6% 25% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +141% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$32 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $102 +$88 +86%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $512 −$510 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 +$88 +43%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $668 +$79 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$26 +125%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$57 +1115%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +248%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$120 +2330%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 52¢ $190 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $19 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $748 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 33¢ $46 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $167 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 33h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 36h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 36h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 36h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 0¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records