Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa2a6…d85e world 38 markets active 2d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$187 (+18%) realized +$197 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days+$318
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$43
other 25% −$39
politics 13% +$285
tech 2% −$7
sports 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.6% -23.6% 60% 20% -16.3%
≤30d 8 +78.8% +61.8% 62% 38% +103.2%
≤90d 32 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 41% +12.3%
all 32 +10.9% +0.4% 50% 41% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 41% +12.3%
10% -9.2% 28% +1.5%
15% -18.0% 25% -8.3%
20% -26.0% 16% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage84d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $42 +$323 +772%
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elect May 31 $52 −$39 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $52 −$26 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $56 −$3 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 07 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 07 $21 −$7 -32%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Apr 29 $20 −$18 -90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $30 +$11 +37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $30 −$1 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? Apr 16 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 16 $30 +$10 +35%
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $21 +$12 +60%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $80 −$6 -8%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026 Apr 05 $32 +$2 +7%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Apr 02 $20 +$11 +56%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Mar 31 $30 −$9 -31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 30 $32 −$32 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 29 $29 −$18 -61%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? Mar 23 $10 −$2 -17%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $20 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 9d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto BUY Yes 11¢ $42 15d
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elect SELL Yes $13 15d
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 10¢ $52 20d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $13 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY Yes $10 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes $20 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes $14 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL Yes $1 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes $21 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.00 · official $105.02 (match) · 86 history records