Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a6…6f08 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$12
sports 25% −$12
other 19% −$10
politics 7% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 2% -10.4%
all 56 +3.3% -6.5% 32% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 12% -10.9%
10% -15.4% 12% -19.5%
15% -23.6% 11% -27.2%
20% -31.1% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage531d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $116 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $29 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $28 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $41 −$14 -34%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $4 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $33 +$3 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $12 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $240 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $187 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $13 −$3 -22%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $131 −$2 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $221 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Mar 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora" Feb 18 $16 +$6 +37%
Troy vs. Arkansas State Feb 16 $6 +$14 +245%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Radford vs. Winthrop Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the match between FC Porto and Sporting CP end in a draw? Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $9 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $18 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $25 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $27 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $27 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $15 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $9 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $25 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $24 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $24 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records