Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a4…fed7 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$800 (-29%) realized −$800 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days−$23
14 days−$908
30 days−$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$241
other 34% −$652
crypto 19% +$8
world 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.8% +3.0% 41% 41% -10.6%
≤30d 24 -19.4% -27.1% 29% 29% -39.1%
≤90d 24 -19.4% -27.1% 29% 29% -39.1%
all 24 -19.4% -27.1% 29% 29% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 29% -39.1%
10% -34.0% 25% -44.9%
15% -40.4% 25% -50.2%
20% -46.2% 21% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$99 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$800
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $180 +$132 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$87 +331%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$201 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $159 −$55 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $95 +$188 +197%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $190 −$10 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $334 −$145 -43%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $199 +$158 +80%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $98 −$95 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $400 −$391 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $203 −$199 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $180 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $95 15h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 15h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $51 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $180 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $190 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $190 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $334 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $10 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 79¢ $358 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $199 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $98 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records