Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa2a3…761a sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%42W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$39
14 days−$23
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$37
other 27% +$18
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.7% -11.0% 75% 75% -20.2%
≤30d 31 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 71% -10.0%
≤90d 66 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 53% -10.7%
all 66 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 53% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 53% -10.7%
10% -17.2% 27% -19.2%
15% -25.2% 15% -27.0%
20% -32.6% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses42 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage52d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$6 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 +$5 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$5 +21%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $18 +$4 +20%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $59 −$59 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $47 +$11 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$18 -28%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$9 +18%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $38 $0 -1%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $37 +$7 +20%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 +$10 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 −$13 -26%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $26 +$6 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +4%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $23 +$3 +12%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $18 +$4 +24%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +12%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $6 +$2 +38%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Bigetron MY by VIT (B Jun 04 $4 +$2 +42%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $6 +$1 +16%
FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 May 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Alter Ego vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indonesia May 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs AC Esports (BO3) - MPL Malaysi May 23 $20 +$14 +69%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5 May 22 $18 +$9 +52%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia- May 21 $21 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $20 +$6 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $13 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $13 +$6 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $40 −$26 -64%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5 May 20 $27 +$6 +23%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5 May 19 $25 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: HereWeGoAgain vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner May 18 $20 +$5 +22%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 May 18 $17 +$2 +12%
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5 May 17 $17 $0 -2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indon May 17 $11 +$6 +51%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indo May 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs ONIC (BO3) - MPL Indo May 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $37 43m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $27 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $27 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $22 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $18 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $59 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $47 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $47 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $58 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $49 7d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $37 13d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $37 14d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $38 14d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $38 14d
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 14d
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 14d
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 99¢ $21 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $15 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 28¢ $15 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 61¢ $33 15d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 17d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $26 17d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 17d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 17d
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 17d
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records