Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a2…91db other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-8%) realized −$111 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$192
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$91
other 34% −$4
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$28
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤90d 10 -20.8% -28.3% 70% 10% -21.4%
all 16 -12.7% -21.0% 81% 6% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 6% -19.6%
10% -28.6% 6% -27.3%
15% -35.5% 6% -34.4%
20% -41.8% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$108 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage177d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $440 $435 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $232 +$192 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $134 −$133 -99%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 28 $165 −$163 -99%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 28 $263 +$12 +4%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $30 −$28 -93%
Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? Feb 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 04 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? Jan 07 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $447 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $232 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $134 24d
Wild vs. Stars BUY Stars 55¢ $165 55d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 33¢ $74 69d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 68¢ $189 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 69d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 100¢ $10 96d
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $17 103d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 112d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $17 116d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $20 135d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $42 142d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 97¢ $23 150d
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? BUY No 99¢ $22 159d
Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 159d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? BUY No 100¢ $24 166d
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.56 · official $434.56 (match) · 31 history records